HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
32-39 | Road
8
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
28-42 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Lange
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 6.56 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Alex Lange | None-None | 4.13 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.56
ERA
Ldr 4.13
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
55%
ROYALS
45%
ASTROS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
KC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
KC @ HOU
2 - 6
Sep 16, 2026
KC @ HOU
5 - 2
Sep 15, 2026
KC @ HOU
2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026
HOU @ KC
0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
HOU @ KC
8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Kansas City
KC
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.582
OPS
▲
.718
4
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+81.0% more
Houston: 2.0
vs
Kansas City: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.6% more
Houston: 7.7
vs
Kansas City: 6.3
Total Bases (L5)
+11.6% more
Houston: 14.9
vs
Kansas City: 13.2
Home Runs (Season)
+4150.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.0
8
KC Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.1 / 7.3
11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 2.0
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 7.7
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 14.9
19.0 / 23.0
Walks
4.5 / 3.6
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
HOU
KC
HOU
ML
55%
89-72
50%
81-82
56%
90-70
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
91-72
58%
93-67
55%
90-74
TTL
58%
90-64-7
45%
70-84-9
54%
83-70-7
45%
69-86-9
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