PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
37-32 | Road
9
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
42-25 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.90 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 4.32 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.90 Ldr
ERA
4.32
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
50%
BREWERS
50%
PHILLIES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Milwaukee
7
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o3.5
Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
o3.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIL @ PHI
5 - 1
Sep 23, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 14, 2026
PHI @ MIL
0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
PHI @ MIL
9 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.724
OPS
▲
.743
3
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5033.3% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Hits (L5)
+83.7% more
Milwaukee: 10.5
vs
Philadelphia: 5.7
Total Bases (L5)
+79.4% more
Milwaukee: 18.4
vs
Philadelphia: 10.3
Home Runs (L5)
+50.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.7
vs
Philadelphia: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
6.0
9
MIL Score
7.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.5 / 5.7
12.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.1
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 9.3
15.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
18.4 / 10.3
21.0 / 25.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.1
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PHI
MIL
PHI
ML
62%
101-61
59%
97-67
52%
84-78
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
94-68
65%
107-57
48%
78-84
51%
83-81
TTL
40%
62-92-8
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-77-8
51%
78-76-9
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