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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

34-33  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Jun 9 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

27-40  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Dylan Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Smith

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orlando Ribalta None-None 1.96 -- 1.0 --
Dylan Smith None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.96 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
55%
📊
GIANTS
45%
NATIONALS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Francisco)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

40.1%

Giants Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
WASHINGTON
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 10, 2026 WSH @ SF 10 - 11
Jun 9, 2026 WSH @ SF 6 - 3
Jun 8, 2026 WSH @ SF 4 - 3
Apr 19, 2026 SF @ WSH 0 - 3
Apr 18, 2026 SF @ WSH 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744 ▲
OPS
.706
210 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +43.1% more
San Francisco: 10.5 vs Washington: 7.3
Walks (L5) +32.7% more
San Francisco: 3.5 vs Washington: 2.6
Strikeouts (L5) +27.8% more
San Francisco: 8.1 vs Washington: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +27.0% more
San Francisco: 15.5 vs Washington: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.0 6
SF Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.5 / 7.3 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 6.4 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 12.2 18.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.6 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
WSH
SF
WSH
ML
49% 79-81
57% 92-69
53% 85-75
54% 87-74
ATS
62% 100-60
58% 93-68
52% 83-77
57% 91-70
TTL
55% 82-68-10
50% 77-78-6
46% 68-81-11
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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