SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
35-32 | Road
6
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
31-36 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Ferrer
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ferrer | None-None | 2.10 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 1.29 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.10
ERA
Ldr 1.29
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
64%
ORIOLES
36%
MARINERS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 18, 2026
BAL @ SEA
0 - 3
Jun 17, 2026
BAL @ SEA
5 - 3
Jun 16, 2026
BAL @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2026
SEA @ BAL
5 - 7
Jun 10, 2026
SEA @ BAL
2 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.314
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.693
OPS
▲
.711
182
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+49.0% more
Seattle: 4.2
vs
Baltimore: 2.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.8% more
Seattle: 8.2
vs
Baltimore: 5.5
Hits (L5)
+19.1% more
Seattle: 9.6
vs
Baltimore: 7.8
Total Bases (L5)
+9.0% more
Seattle: 14.4
vs
Baltimore: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
5.0
6
BAL Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 9.6
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 8.2
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 14.4
13.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.2
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
SEA
BAL
SEA
ML
53%
83-73
50%
81-81
57%
90-69
52%
85-77
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
98-64
57%
90-68-1
59%
95-67
TTL
54%
81-70-5
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-75-6
53%
81-71-10
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