CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
37-29 | Road
0
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
31-33 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Austin Hedges
#27 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Alexander
#13 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges | None-None | 13.50 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Tyler Alexander | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
13.50
ERA
Ldr 3.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
46%
RANGERS
54%
GUARDIANS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Texas
5
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Cleveland
CLEVELAND
Texas
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026
TEX @ CLE
6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026
CLE @ TEX
0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026
CLE @ TEX
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.696
OPS
▲
.713
162
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+75.0% more
Texas: 1.0
vs
Cleveland: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+48.4% more
Texas: 2.9
vs
Cleveland: 1.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.1% more
Texas: 8.0
vs
Cleveland: 6.6
Home Runs (Season)
+13.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.0
0
TEX Score
5.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.7 / 7.7
16.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.3
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 6.6
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
8.9 / 13.6
31.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.9 / 1.9
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CLE
TEX
CLE
ML
53%
86-76
54%
87-75
57%
91-70
49%
80-83
ATS
57%
92-70
57%
93-69
61%
98-63
58%
95-68
TTL
53%
78-70-14
56%
89-71-2
55%
81-66-14
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
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Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox