PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
34-30 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
43-21 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Montgomery
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Montgomery | None-None | 4.74 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 0.87 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.74
ERA
Ldr 0.87
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
41%
BRAVES
59%
PIRATES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
84%
Under 0
16%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
ATL @ PIT
10 - 5
Jul 8, 2026
ATL @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 7, 2026
ATL @ PIT
4 - 12
Jun 7, 2026
PIT @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
PIT @ ATL
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.734
OPS
▲
.757
186
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+12.3% more
Atlanta: 1.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.7% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.9%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
OPS (Season)
+2.3%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
5.0
3
ATL Score
6.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.3
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.9
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 13.5
13.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.8
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PIT
ATL
PIT
ML
46%
77-90
52%
82-77
54%
90-78
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
86-73
52%
87-81
50%
81-82
TTL
53%
83-73-11
47%
72-81-6
49%
76-80-11
50%
79-78-6
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