Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Rangers CLE @ TEX

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

36-28  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Jun 5 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

30-32  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Matt Festa
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Festa

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Latz
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Latz

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Festa None-None 4.13 -- 1.1 2
Jacob Latz None-None 1.86 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.13 ERA Ldr 1.86
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
45%
📊
RANGERS
55%
GUARDIANS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Rangers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CLEVELAND
4
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
CLEVELAND
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
65% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026 TEX @ CLE 6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026 CLE @ TEX 0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026 CLE @ TEX 6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.19 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.696
OPS
▲ .713
162
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +18.0% more
Texas: 0.7 vs Cleveland: 0.5
Hits (L5) +13.3% more
Texas: 8.0 vs Cleveland: 7.1
Home Runs (Season) +13.0% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
OPS (Season) +1.7%
Texas: 71.3% vs Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 3.0 2
TEX Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 7.1 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 8.9 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 12.1 12.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.3 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CLE
TEX
CLE
ML
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 92-70
58% 93-68
61% 98-63
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 78-70-14
55% 88-71-2
55% 81-66-14
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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