TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
29-33 | Road
7
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
42-20 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Reynaldo Lopez
#40 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.28 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | None-None | 4.21 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.28 Ldr
ERA
4.21
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
33%
BRAVES
67%
BLUE JAYS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
TOR @ ATL
7 - 2
Jun 3, 2026
TOR @ ATL
3 - 7
Jun 2, 2026
TOR @ ATL
3 - 4
Apr 16, 2025
ATL @ TOR
1 - 3
Apr 15, 2025
ATL @ TOR
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.692
OPS
▲
.757
152
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+71.2% more
Atlanta: 8.9
vs
Toronto: 5.2
Home Runs (L5)
+38.3% more
Atlanta: 1.8
vs
Toronto: 1.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Total Bases (L5)
+9.7% more
Atlanta: 15.3
vs
Toronto: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.0
7
ATL Score
6.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.6
4.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 5.2
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.3 / 13.9
8.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TOR
ATL
TOR
ML
46%
77-90
46%
74-87
54%
90-78
50%
80-80
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
90-71
52%
87-81
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
80-76-5
49%
76-80-11
45%
70-85-5
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