PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
32-28 | Road
10
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
27-34 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gregory Soto
#31 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
AJ Blubaugh
#69 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Soto | None-None | 1.91 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
| AJ Blubaugh | None-None | 4.54 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.91 Ldr
ERA
4.54
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
45%
ASTROS
55%
PIRATES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
PIT @ HOU
5 - 1
Jun 3, 2026
PIT @ HOU
9 - 11
Jun 2, 2026
PIT @ HOU
10 - 6
Jun 5, 2025
HOU @ PIT
8 - 2
Jun 4, 2025
HOU @ PIT
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.734
▲
OPS
.582
186
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+10.5% more
Houston: 3.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.9
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+65.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8
vs
Houston: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+38.5% more
Pittsburgh: 2.1
vs
Houston: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.0
10
HOU Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.8 / 9.6
8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 2.1
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 11.8
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 16.8
12.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.9
8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
PIT
HOU
PIT
ML
50%
81-82
52%
82-77
47%
77-87
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
91-72
54%
86-73
55%
90-74
50%
81-82
TTL
45%
70-84-9
47%
72-81-6
45%
69-86-9
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…