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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

22-35  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, May 30 • 4:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

26-31  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Peyton Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Peyton Gray

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 6.33 -- -- --
Peyton Gray None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
6.33 ERA Ldr 3.38
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
36%
📊
RANGERS
64%
ROYALS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Texas)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

22.7%

Rangers Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

KC By 1-2 runs

10.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

5.4%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
KANSAS CITY
6
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 11, 2026 TEX @ KC 4 - 2
Jun 10, 2026 TEX @ KC 6 - 4
Jun 9, 2026 TEX @ KC 3 - 5
May 31, 2026 KC @ TEX 3 - 6
May 30, 2026 KC @ TEX 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.718 ▲
OPS
.713
170
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +148.0% more
Texas: 1.9 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +61.5% more
Texas: 14.2 vs Kansas City: 8.8
Hits (L5) +18.4% more
Texas: 7.0 vs Kansas City: 5.9
Home Runs (Season) +7.6% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.0 6
TEX Score 6.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.0 / 5.9 14.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 7.4 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 8.8 22.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.0 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
KC
TEX
KC
ML
53% 86-76
55% 89-72
57% 91-70
56% 90-70
ATS
57% 92-70
57% 91-70
61% 98-63
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 78-70-14
58% 90-64-7
55% 81-66-14
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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