TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
34-16 | Road
7
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
23-30 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Wells
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wells | None-None | 3.20 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 0.77 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.20
ERA
Ldr 0.77
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
73%
ORIOLES
27%
RAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
73% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.711
169
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Batting Avg (Season)
+2.4%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Runs per Game (Season)
+1.8% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+1.7%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.2%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Baltimore: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.0
7
BAL Score
3.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
1.0 / 4.0
Hits
8.5 / 8.1
12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 6.8
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 11.9
16.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.4
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TB
BAL
TB
ML
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
58%
95-68
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-66
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
81-70-5
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-6
51%
78-75-10
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