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COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

55-16-11  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, May 24 • 8:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

39-26-17  |  Home

5
AI Model Win Probability
AVALANCHE
55%
📊
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
45%
AVALANCHE --
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Vegas)
AvalancheCOL (-3.5) 0 Golden KnightsVGK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Avalanche Cover

30.9%

Golden Knights Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)

COL By 1 goal

12.1%

COL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

VGK By 1 goal

19.7%

VGK By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1
COLORADO
2
VEGAS
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
3
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Knights Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Avalanche Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Golden Knights (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Avalanche (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 26, 2026 COL @ VGK 1 - 2
May 24, 2026 COL @ VGK 3 - 5
May 22, 2026 VGK @ COL 3 - 1
May 20, 2026 VGK @ COL 4 - 2
Apr 11, 2026 VGK @ COL 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +47.6% more
Vegas: 14.5 vs Colorado: 9.8
Power Play % (L5) +22.1%
Vegas: 22.6% vs Colorado: 0.6%
Takeaways (L5) +9.3% more
Vegas: 5.6 vs Colorado: 5.1
Shots on Goal (L5) +12.5% more
Colorado: 30.8 vs Vegas: 26.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 1.0 3
VGK Score 2.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
67%MONEY33%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
COL
VGK
COL
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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