Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Reds STL @ CIN

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

29-21  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, May 23 • 7:15 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

26-25  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 8.77 -- 1.0 2
Sam Moll None-None 2.86 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
8.77 ERA Ldr 2.86
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
64%
📊
REDS
36%
CARDINALS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
ST. LOUIS
7
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o10.0 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 STL @ CIN 10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026 STL @ CIN 4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026 STL @ CIN 3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026 STL @ CIN 2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026 CIN @ STL 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.691
OPS
▲ .699
167
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +55.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.0 vs St. Louis: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +43.5% more
Cincinnati: 16.7 vs St. Louis: 11.6
Hits (L5) +36.7% more
Cincinnati: 10.2 vs St. Louis: 7.5
Home Runs (Season) +27.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 6.0 6
CIN Score 7.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.2 / 7.5 2.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.3 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 16.7 / 11.6 5.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.9 8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
STL
CIN
STL
ML
55% 88-71
53% 85-74
49% 79-81
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 86-73
56% 89-70
50% 80-80
53% 85-76
TTL
53% 81-73-5
46% 68-81-10
54% 83-72-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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