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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

25-24  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, May 21 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

17-33  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Lawrence Butler
STARTING PITCHER

Lawrence Butler

#4 | Right Field
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lawrence Butler None-None -- -- -- --
Jose Fermin None-None 3.48 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.48
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
📊
ANGELS
0%
ATHLETICS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

30.9%

Angels Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

ATH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ATHLETICS
5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
ATHLETICS
3
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Athletics (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 LAA @ ATH 3 - 7
Sep 22, 2026 LAA @ ATH 7 - 9
Jun 28, 2026 ATH @ LAA 1 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 ATH @ LAA 2 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATH @ LAA 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.719 ▲
OPS
.679
194 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +70.5% more
Los Angeles: 5.2 vs Athletics: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +42.2% more
Los Angeles: 1.5 vs Athletics: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +31.6% more
Los Angeles: 9.1 vs Athletics: 6.9
Errors (L5) +25.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Athletics: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 3.0 3
LAA Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 8.5 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 6.9 9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 13.1 8.0 / 8.0
Walks 5.2 / 3.0 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH Advantage
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
ATH
LAA
ATH
ML
59% 96-66
59% 95-67
55% 89-73
54% 87-74
ATS
60% 97-65
52% 84-78
51% 82-80
50% 81-80
TTL
53% 83-74-5
54% 84-73-5
52% 82-75-5
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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