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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

25-24  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, May 20 • 1:05 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

25-24  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Alvarado

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Moll None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 1
Jose Alvarado None-None 6.11 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 Ldr ERA 6.11
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
📊
PHILLIES
100%
REDS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

40.1%

Phillies Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

PHI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PHI By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
CINCINNATI
5
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
6
CINCINNATI
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Reds (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 9, 2026 PHI @ CIN 1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026 PHI @ CIN 5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026 PHI @ CIN 4 - 1
May 20, 2026 CIN @ PHI 9 - 4
May 19, 2026 CIN @ PHI 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.305 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.699
OPS
▲ .724
213 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.6% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5) +25.6% more
Cincinnati: 3.9 vs Philadelphia: 2.9
Hits (L5) +23.3% more
Cincinnati: 7.8 vs Philadelphia: 6.0
Runs per Game (Season) +14.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.1 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 6.0 9
PHI Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.0 / 7.8 6.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 9.1 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 12.5 13.0 / 25.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.9 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CIN
PHI
CIN
ML
59% 97-67
55% 88-71
49% 80-84
49% 79-81
ATS
65% 107-57
54% 86-73
51% 83-81
50% 80-80
TTL
57% 88-67-9
53% 81-73-5
51% 78-76-9
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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