CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
24-23 | Road
2
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
23-26 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Castillo
#58 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | None-None | 6.41 | -- | 2.1 | 4 |
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 4.82 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.41
ERA
Ldr 4.82
--
WHIP
--
2.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
0%
MARINERS
100%
WHITE SOX
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
16.3%
SEA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Chicago
2
CHICAGO
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 20, 2026
CHW @ SEA
4 - 5
May 19, 2026
CHW @ SEA
2 - 1
May 18, 2026
CHW @ SEA
1 - 6
May 10, 2026
SEA @ CHW
1 - 2
May 9, 2026
SEA @ CHW
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Seattle
SEA
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.826
▲
OPS
.693
1
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+61.0% more
Chicago: 0.8
vs
Seattle: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+45.2% more
Chicago: 2.1
vs
Seattle: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.7% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Total Bases (L5)
+28.7% more
Chicago: 15.9
vs
Seattle: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.0
2
SEA Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 8.3
1.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 8.0
14.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 15.9
1.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.9
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
CHW
SEA
CHW
ML
50%
81-81
49%
81-86
52%
85-77
56%
94-73
ATS
60%
98-64
59%
99-68
59%
95-67
56%
93-74
TTL
56%
85-67-10
58%
96-69-2
53%
81-71-10
51%
84-81-2
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