Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Padres LAD @ SD

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

29-19  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, May 19 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

29-18  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Will Klein
STARTING PITCHER

Will Klein

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Will Klein None-None 2.33 -- 1.0 1
Mason Miller None-None 0.79 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.33 ERA Ldr 0.79
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
DODGERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Diego)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

22.7%

Padres Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

10.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

5.4%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.4%

SD By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.762
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +103.2% more
San Diego: 4.4 vs Los Angeles: 2.2
Errors (L5) +87.0% more
San Diego: 0.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +67.0% more
San Diego: 1.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +21.5% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.0 5
SD Score 6.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 7.8 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.7 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.1 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 11.0 13.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.2 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAD
SD
LAD
ML
51% 85-83
56% 92-73
51% 85-82
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 98-67
55% 92-75
43% 72-94
TTL
51% 82-80-6
48% 77-82-6
54% 86-74-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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