BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
21-27 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
31-15 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 0.89 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 2.66 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.89 Ldr
ERA
2.66
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
RAYS
0%
ORIOLES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
BAL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.728
199
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+39.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8
vs
Baltimore: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.0% more
Tampa Bay: 8.3
vs
Baltimore: 6.6
Hits (L5)
+21.1% more
Tampa Bay: 12.0
vs
Baltimore: 9.9
Total Bases (L5)
+10.4% more
Tampa Bay: 19.7
vs
Baltimore: 17.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.0
1
TB Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.0 / 9.9
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 6.6
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
19.7 / 17.9
13.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.1 / 5.0
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BAL
TB
BAL
ML
58%
95-68
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
ATS
60%
97-66
61%
95-60-1
55%
90-73
57%
90-68-1
TTL
47%
73-81-9
54%
81-70-5
51%
78-75-10
51%
78-75-6
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