Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Padres LAD @ SD

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

29-18  |  Road

0
FINAL
Mon, May 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

28-18  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
STARTING PITCHER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yoshinobu Yamamoto None-None 3.32 -- 7.0 8
Mason Miller None-None 0.82 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.32 ERA Ldr 0.82
-- WHIP --
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
8 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
DODGERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

40.1%

Padres Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
LOS ANGELES
3
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.762
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +81.8% more
San Diego: 4.1 vs Los Angeles: 2.3
Errors (L5) +81.0% more
San Diego: 0.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +49.5% more
San Diego: 1.5 vs Los Angeles: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season) +21.5% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 2.0 0
SD Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.3 4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 9.7 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 14.0 7.0 / 5.0
Walks 4.1 / 2.3 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAD
SD
LAD
ML
51% 85-83
56% 92-73
51% 85-82
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 98-67
55% 92-75
43% 72-94
TTL
51% 82-80-6
48% 77-82-6
54% 86-74-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
foxnews 0 minutes ago
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 3 hours, 45 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 3 hours, 53 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 3 hours, 56 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 4 hours, 3 minutes ago