CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
24-23 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
24-23 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brock Burke
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Burke | None-None | 2.86 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.16 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.86
ERA
Ldr 2.16
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
PHILLIES
100%
REDS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
PHI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u10.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
PHI @ CIN
1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026
PHI @ CIN
5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026
PHI @ CIN
4 - 1
May 20, 2026
CIN @ PHI
9 - 4
May 19, 2026
CIN @ PHI
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.699
OPS
▲
.724
213
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.6% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+73.8% more
Cincinnati: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 1.3
Errors (L5)
+18.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5
vs
Philadelphia: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+14.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.0
4
PHI Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.3
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 8.4
6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 15.6
12.0 / 10.0
Walks
1.3 / 5.1
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CIN
PHI
CIN
ML
59%
97-67
55%
88-71
49%
80-84
49%
79-81
ATS
65%
107-57
54%
86-73
51%
83-81
50%
80-80
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
81-73-5
51%
78-76-9
54%
83-72-5
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