Home / MLB Projections MLB / Diamondbacks @ Rockies ARI @ COL

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

21-23  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, May 17 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

18-28  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Clarke
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Clarke

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brett Sullivan
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Sullivan

#26 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Clarke None-None 2.18 -- 0.2 --
Brett Sullivan None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.18 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
📊
ROCKIES
0%
DIAMONDBACKS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

40.1%

Rockies Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

ARI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

10.6%

COL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ARIZONA
4
COLORADO
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.720
OPS
▲ .739
166
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +259.5% more
Colorado: 4.2 vs Arizona: 1.2
Home Runs (L5) +39.0% more
Colorado: 0.5 vs Arizona: 0.2
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
Colorado: 0.4 vs Arizona: 0.0
Home Runs (Season) +8.4% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.0 8
COL Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.0 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.9 9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 5.2 / 6.8 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 12.4 12.0 / 22.0
Walks 4.2 / 1.2 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ARI
COL
ARI
ML
60% 97-64
54% 87-74
55% 88-73
54% 86-74
ATS
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
52% 83-78
56% 89-71
TTL
60% 93-62-6
52% 80-73-8
50% 77-78-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
si 0 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 4 hours, 3 minutes ago
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
newspub_live 15 hours, 59 minutes ago
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 9 hours ago
Nick Martinez's Journey from Ejection at Yankee Stadium to ALCS …
yourvalley_net 1 day, 16 hours ago