MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
21-25 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
29-15 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
John King
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John King | None-None | 2.29 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 2.79 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.29 Ldr
ERA
2.79
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
0%
RAYS
100%
MARLINS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 7, 2026
TB @ MIA
1 - 4
Jun 6, 2026
TB @ MIA
3 - 4
Jun 5, 2026
TB @ MIA
6 - 0
May 17, 2026
MIA @ TB
3 - 6
May 16, 2026
MIA @ TB
10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.727
OPS
▲
.728
168
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+36.1% more
Miami: 1.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.1
Home Runs (L5)
+33.3% more
Miami: 1.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+14.8% more
Miami: 3.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.0
3
TB Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 1.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.1 / 9.5
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.4
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 15.0
16.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.7
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIA
TB
MIA
ML
58%
95-68
48%
78-84
58%
95-68
55%
88-72
ATS
60%
97-66
56%
91-71
55%
90-73
54%
86-74
TTL
47%
73-81-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-75-10
53%
82-73-5
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