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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

24-22  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, May 17 • 1:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

25-22  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Tejay Antone
STARTING PITCHER

Tejay Antone

#70 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tim Herrin
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Herrin

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tejay Antone None-None 6.43 -- 1.0 1
Tim Herrin None-None 1.17 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
6.43 ERA Ldr 1.17
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
📊
GUARDIANS
100%
REDS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

69.1%

Guardians Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

18.4%

CLE By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CINCINNATI
3
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
5
CINCINNATI
3
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Reds (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 29, 2026 CLE @ CIN 6 - 1
Jul 28, 2026 CLE @ CIN 0 - 2
May 17, 2026 CIN @ CLE 3 - 10
May 16, 2026 CIN @ CLE 4 - 7
May 15, 2026 CIN @ CLE 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.699 ▲
OPS
.696
213 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +74.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8 vs Cleveland: 0.0
Home Runs (L5) +37.5% more
Cincinnati: 1.4 vs Cleveland: 0.9
Walks (L5) +31.5% more
Cincinnati: 5.7 vs Cleveland: 3.9
Home Runs (Season) +23.9% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 5.0 3
CLE Score 3.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.5 12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.4 6.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 8.0 12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 15.0 31.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.9 / 5.7 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CIN
CLE
CIN
ML
54% 87-74
55% 88-71
49% 80-82
49% 79-81
ATS
58% 93-68
54% 86-73
59% 95-67
50% 80-80
TTL
55% 88-71-2
53% 81-73-5
43% 69-90-2
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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