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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

29-16  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, May 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Rate Field
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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

22-22  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Rolison
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Rolison

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Trevor Richards
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Richards

#43 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Rolison None-None 3.75 -- 1.0 1
Trevor Richards None-None 6.75 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.75 Ldr ERA 6.75
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
100%
📊
WHITE SOX
0%
CUBS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

22.7%

White Sox Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

CHC By 1-2 runs

10.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

5.4%

CHW By 1-2 runs

18.4%

CHW By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CHICAGO
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 0
Aug 18, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 CHW @ CHC 5 - 7
May 17, 2026 CHC @ CHW 8 - 9
May 16, 2026 CHC @ CHW 3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Chicago CHW
2 ▲
Games Played
1
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.374
OPS
▲ .826
0
Home Runs
▲ 1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +550.0% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +155.0% more
Chicago: 2.0 vs Chicago: 0.4
Walks (L5) +68.5% more
Chicago: 4.2 vs Chicago: 2.5
Total Bases (L5) +46.8% more
Chicago: 15.8 vs Chicago: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.0 3
CHW Score 6.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.8 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.4 5.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 7.6 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 10.8 24.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.2 / 2.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-80-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CHC
CHW
CHC
ML
48% 81-87
58% 93-68
56% 94-74
51% 82-79
ATS
59% 99-69
61% 97-63-1
55% 93-75
47% 75-85-1
TTL
58% 97-69-2
52% 81-74-6
51% 85-81-2
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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