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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

20-25  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, May 16 • 4:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

29-14  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Pete Fairbanks
STARTING PITCHER

Pete Fairbanks

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Pete Fairbanks None-None 9.00 -- 1.0 2
Bryan Baker None-None 2.95 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 2.95
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
0%
📊
RAYS
100%
MARLINS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

69.1%

Rays Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIA By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
7
MIAMI
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 7, 2026 TB @ MIA 1 - 4
Jun 6, 2026 TB @ MIA 3 - 4
Jun 5, 2026 TB @ MIA 6 - 0
May 17, 2026 MIA @ TB 3 - 6
May 16, 2026 MIA @ TB 10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.727
OPS
▲ .728
168
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +20.2% more
Miami: 4.1 vs Tampa Bay: 3.2
Strikeouts (L5) +16.0% more
Miami: 8.2 vs Tampa Bay: 6.9
Errors (L5) +58.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.1 vs Miami: 0.5
Hits (L5) +49.9% more
Tampa Bay: 10.1 vs Miami: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 7.0 10
TB Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.5 1.0 / 4.0
Hits 10.1 / 6.8 10.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 8.2 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 11.0 12.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.1 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIA
TB
MIA
ML
58% 95-68
48% 78-84
58% 95-68
55% 88-72
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 91-71
55% 90-73
54% 86-74
TTL
47% 73-81-9
56% 88-69-5
51% 78-75-10
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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