Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Guardians CIN @ CLE

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

24-21  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, May 16 • 6:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

24-22  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Pierce Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Pierce Johnson

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Pierce Johnson None-None 3.93 -- 0.1 --
Cade Smith None-None 2.91 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.93 ERA Ldr 2.91
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
📊
GUARDIANS
0%
REDS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

40.1%

Guardians Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 29, 2026 CLE @ CIN 6 - 1
Jul 28, 2026 CLE @ CIN 0 - 2
May 17, 2026 CIN @ CLE 3 - 10
May 16, 2026 CIN @ CLE 4 - 7
May 15, 2026 CIN @ CLE 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.699 ▲
OPS
.696
213 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +12.8% more
Cleveland: 9.1 vs Cincinnati: 8.1
Runs per Game (Season) +1.9% more
Cleveland: 4.2 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.1%
Cleveland: 31.6% vs Cincinnati: 30.5%
Batting Avg (Season) +1.0%
Cleveland: 23.9% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.0 4
CLE Score 5.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 10.3 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 8.1 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 17.9 14.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.3 / 5.0 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CIN
CLE
CIN
ML
54% 87-75
55% 88-71
49% 80-83
49% 79-81
ATS
57% 93-69
54% 86-73
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
TTL
56% 89-71-2
53% 81-73-5
44% 70-90-2
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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