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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

24-17  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, May 15 • 7:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

20-24  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yoendrys Gomez
STARTING PITCHER

Yoendrys Gomez

#94 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Megill None-None 5.63 -- 1.0 1
Yoendrys Gomez None-None 5.59 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.63 ERA Ldr 5.59
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
100%
📊
TWINS
0%
BREWERS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

40.1%

Twins Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MILWAUKEE
5
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 MIN @ MIL 3 - 4
Aug 8, 2026 MIN @ MIL 3 - 4
Aug 7, 2026 MIN @ MIL 8 - 6
May 17, 2026 MIL @ MIN 4 - 5
May 16, 2026 MIL @ MIN 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.403
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.743 ▲
OPS
.720
154
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +64.0% more
Minnesota: 1.0 vs Milwaukee: 0.4
Walks (L5) +26.1% more
Minnesota: 3.8 vs Milwaukee: 3.0
Home Runs (Season) +21.4% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Milwaukee: 154.0
Errors (L5) +20.0% more
Minnesota: 0.6 vs Milwaukee: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.0 3
MIN Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.0 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 11.6 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 12.7 8.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
MIL
MIN
MIL
ML
52% 84-78
62% 101-61
50% 80-81
52% 84-78
ATS
59% 95-67
58% 94-68
59% 95-66
48% 78-84
TTL
51% 78-75-9
40% 62-92-8
53% 80-72-9
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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