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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

50-23-9  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, May 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Bell Centre
View Odds Details →

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

48-24-10  |  Home

3
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
📊
CANADIENS
0%
SABRES --
CANADIENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Montreal)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 CanadiensMTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

30.9%

Canadiens Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)

BUF By 1 goal

12.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

9.3%

MTL By 1 goal

19.7%

MTL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BUFFALO
4
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
2
BUFFALO
4
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Canadiens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Canadiens (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Canadiens (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 18, 2026 MTL @ BUF 3 - 2
May 16, 2026 BUF @ MTL 8 - 3
May 14, 2026 MTL @ BUF 6 - 3
May 12, 2026 BUF @ MTL 3 - 2
May 10, 2026 BUF @ MTL 2 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +61.5% more
Montreal: 19.6 vs Buffalo: 12.2
Shots on Goal (L5) +9.2% more
Montreal: 29.7 vs Buffalo: 27.2
Faceoff % (L5) +4.7%
Montreal: 52.9% vs Buffalo: 48.1%
Power Play % (L5) +24.1%
Buffalo: 26.3% vs Montreal: 2.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 3.0 8
MTL Score 4.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
42%MONEY58%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
BUF
MTL
BUF
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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