CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
23-21 | Road
7
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
24-21 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tejay Antone
#70 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Herrin
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tejay Antone | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Tim Herrin | None-None | 1.26 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 1.26
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
GUARDIANS
0%
REDS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
CLE @ CIN
6 - 1
Jul 28, 2026
CLE @ CIN
0 - 2
May 17, 2026
CIN @ CLE
3 - 10
May 16, 2026
CIN @ CLE
4 - 7
May 15, 2026
CIN @ CLE
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.699
▲
OPS
.696
213
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.1% more
Cleveland: 11.6
vs
Cincinnati: 9.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+1.9% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.1%
Cleveland: 31.6%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.0%
Cleveland: 23.9%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.0
7
CLE Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 9.9
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.6 / 9.1
4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
9.3 / 17.9
14.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.5
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CIN
CLE
CIN
ML
54%
87-74
55%
88-71
49%
80-82
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
59%
95-67
50%
80-80
TTL
55%
88-71-2
53%
81-73-5
43%
69-90-2
54%
83-72-5
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