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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

28-16  |  Road

10
FINAL
Fri, May 15 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

22-21  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Javier Assad
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Assad

#72 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Schweitzer

#62 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Assad None-None 5.88 -- 2.0 1
Tyler Schweitzer None-None 9.00 -- 1.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.88 Ldr ERA 9.00
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
📊
WHITE SOX
100%
CUBS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

69.1%

White Sox Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

CHW By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CHICAGO
3
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim White Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 0
Aug 18, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 CHW @ CHC 5 - 7
May 17, 2026 CHC @ CHW 8 - 9
May 16, 2026 CHC @ CHW 3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Chicago CHW
2 ▲
Games Played
1
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.374
OPS
▲ .826
0
Home Runs
▲ 1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +16.6% more
Chicago: 8.8 vs Chicago: 7.4
Runs per Game (Season) +550.0% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +98.5% more
Chicago: 14.2 vs Chicago: 7.2
Walks (L5) +90.1% more
Chicago: 3.3 vs Chicago: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.0 10
CHW Score 3.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 4.7 8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.6 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 8.8 9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 7.2 19.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.3 / 1.7 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CHC
CHW
CHC
ML
49% 81-86
58% 93-68
56% 94-73
51% 82-79
ATS
59% 99-68
61% 97-63-1
56% 93-74
47% 75-85-1
TTL
58% 96-69-2
52% 81-74-6
51% 84-81-2
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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