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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

20-24  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 15 • 7:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

28-14  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Michael Petersen
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Petersen

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Casey Legumina
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Legumina

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Petersen None-None 4.41 -- 1.1 1
Casey Legumina None-None 3.79 -- 2.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.41 ERA Ldr 3.79
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
100%
📊
RAYS
0%
MARLINS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

40.1%

Rays Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MIAMI
7
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 7, 2026 TB @ MIA 1 - 4
Jun 6, 2026 TB @ MIA 3 - 4
Jun 5, 2026 TB @ MIA 6 - 0
May 17, 2026 MIA @ TB 3 - 6
May 16, 2026 MIA @ TB 10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.727
OPS
▲ .728
168
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +46.0% more
Tampa Bay: 9.7 vs Miami: 6.6
Total Bases (L5) +28.6% more
Tampa Bay: 12.8 vs Miami: 10.0
Runs per Game (Season) +2.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Miami: 4.4
Batting Avg (Season) +0.9%
Tampa Bay: 25.8% vs Miami: 24.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 6.0 2
TB Score 7.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 6.6 11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.5 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.7 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 10.0 22.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.9 / 4.6 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIA
TB
MIA
ML
58% 95-68
48% 78-84
58% 95-68
55% 88-72
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 91-71
55% 90-73
54% 86-74
TTL
47% 73-81-9
56% 88-69-5
51% 78-75-10
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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