DETROIT
PISTONSDET
60-22 | Road
115
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
52-30 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
PISTONS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
DET By 1-7 points
9.3%
DET By 8-14 points
2.7%
CLE By 1-7 points
21.6%
CLE By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
107
DETROIT
Cleveland
118
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
105
DETROIT
Cleveland
118
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o210.0
Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u210.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
CLE @ DET
125 - 94
May 15, 2026
DET @ CLE
115 - 94
May 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
117 - 113
May 11, 2026
DET @ CLE
103 - 112
May 9, 2026
DET @ CLE
109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+16.5% more
Cleveland: 7.4
vs
Detroit: 6.4
Steals (L5)
+29.5% more
Detroit: 10.0
vs
Cleveland: 7.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Detroit: 38.2%
vs
Cleveland: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
107.0
115
CLE Score
118.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 38.2
34.0 / 44.0
Assists
23.1 / 24.5
15.0 / 25.0
Blocks
7.4 / 6.4
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.5 / 46.5
39.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
80.1 / 81.6
73.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
39.8 / 40.3
40.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.1 / 10.0
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 15.9
20.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
60%
69-46
55%
64-53
56%
55-44
49%
47-49
ATS
67%
75-37-3
53%
60-54-3
56%
55-44
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
68-47
60%
70-46-1
100%
99-0
100%
96-0
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