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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

20-23  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, May 14 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

18-24  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Garrett Whitlock
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Whitlock

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.54 -- 1.0 3
Garrett Whitlock None-None 3.12 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.54 Ldr ERA 3.12
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
📊
RED SOX
100%
PHILLIES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
14.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

84.1%

Red Sox Cover

15.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

7.8%

BOS By 3-4 runs

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
9
PHILADELPHIA
5
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 14, 2026 PHI @ BOS 3 - 1
May 13, 2026 PHI @ BOS 1 - 3
May 12, 2026 PHI @ BOS 2 - 1
Jul 23, 2025 BOS @ PHI 9 - 8
Jul 22, 2025 BOS @ PHI 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Boston BOS
2
Games Played
2
3.50 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.286 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.724 ▲
OPS
.409
3 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +71.4% more
Philadelphia: 3.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +37.1% more
Philadelphia: 1.6 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +31.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +18.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Boston: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 9.0 3
BOS Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 6.8 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 9.0 14.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 12.5 12.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.7 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PHI
BOS
PHI
ML
50% 80-80
59% 97-67
47% 76-87
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-67
65% 107-57
48% 79-84
51% 83-81
TTL
46% 72-83-5
57% 88-67-9
47% 74-83-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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