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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

21-22  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, May 14 • 12:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

22-21  |  Home

15
Probable Pitchers
Jorbit Vivas
STARTING PITCHER

Jorbit Vivas

#84 | Third Base
@
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jorbit Vivas None-None -- -- -- --
Sam Moll None-None 3.06 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.06
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
REDS
0%
NATIONALS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
4
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
7
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 CIN @ WSH 1 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 CIN @ WSH 2 - 8
Aug 7, 2026 CIN @ WSH 3 - 5
May 14, 2026 WSH @ CIN 1 - 15
May 13, 2026 WSH @ CIN 8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.744 ▲
OPS
.699
210
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +8.1% more
Cincinnati: 8.6 vs Washington: 8.0
Errors (L5) +98.5% more
Washington: 1.3 vs Cincinnati: 0.0
Home Runs (L5) +69.2% more
Washington: 2.3 vs Cincinnati: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +38.5% more
Washington: 20.1 vs Cincinnati: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 1
CIN Score 4.0 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 1.3 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 9.7 14.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 2.3 4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.0 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 20.1 29.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.8 / 4.3 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
WSH
CIN
WSH
ML
55% 88-71
57% 92-69
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-68
50% 80-80
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 81-73-5
50% 77-78-6
54% 83-72-5
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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