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MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

48-24-10  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, May 14 • 7:00 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

50-23-9  |  Home

3
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
0%
📊
SABRES
100%
CANADIENS --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CanadiensMTL (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

30.9%

Sabres Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

MTL By 1 goal

19.7%

MTL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

BUF By 1 goal

12.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MONTREAL
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
2
MONTREAL
3
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Canadiens Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Sabres (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 18, 2026 MTL @ BUF 3 - 2
May 16, 2026 BUF @ MTL 8 - 3
May 14, 2026 MTL @ BUF 6 - 3
May 12, 2026 BUF @ MTL 3 - 2
May 10, 2026 BUF @ MTL 2 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +38.1% more
Montreal: 19.6 vs Buffalo: 12.2
Shots on Goal (L5) +8.4% more
Montreal: 29.7 vs Buffalo: 27.2
Faceoff % (L5) +4.7%
Montreal: 52.9% vs Buffalo: 48.1%
Takeaways (L5) +39.7% more
Buffalo: 5.1 vs Montreal: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 4.0 6
BUF Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
MTL
BUF
MTL
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
yardbarker 6 hours, 9 minutes ago
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
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Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
yardbarker 1 day ago
Canadiens' Ivan Demidov Sidelined 2-4 Weeks with Lower-Body Inju…
yardbarker 2 days, 6 hours ago
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…
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