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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

20-21  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, May 13 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

20-22  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Juan Morillo
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Morillo

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cal Quantrill
STARTING PITCHER

Cal Quantrill

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Morillo None-None 1.93 -- -- --
Cal Quantrill None-None 3.77 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.93 Ldr ERA 3.77
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
📊
RANGERS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

40.1%

Rangers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

ARI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ARIZONA
4
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 TEX @ ARI 7 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 TEX @ ARI 6 - 2
Sep 11, 2026 TEX @ ARI 1 - 9
May 13, 2026 ARI @ TEX 5 - 6
May 12, 2026 ARI @ TEX 4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720 ▲
OPS
.713
166
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +64.0% more
Texas: 1.1 vs Arizona: 0.5
Hits (L5) +49.7% more
Texas: 7.6 vs Arizona: 5.1
Walks (L5) +40.4% more
Texas: 3.2 vs Arizona: 2.3
Total Bases (L5) +39.3% more
Texas: 12.1 vs Arizona: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.0 5
TEX Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 5.1 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 7.9 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 8.7 13.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.3 8.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ARI
TEX
ARI
ML
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
54% 86-74
ATS
57% 92-70
57% 91-70
61% 98-63
56% 89-71
TTL
53% 78-70-14
52% 80-73-8
55% 81-66-14
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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