WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
20-22 | Road
8
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
22-20 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brock Burke
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 2.57 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Brock Burke | None-None | 2.75 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.57 Ldr
ERA
2.75
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
REDS
0%
NATIONALS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
CIN @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
CIN @ WSH
2 - 8
Aug 7, 2026
CIN @ WSH
3 - 5
May 14, 2026
WSH @ CIN
1 - 15
May 13, 2026
WSH @ CIN
8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.744
▲
OPS
.699
210
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+25.7% more
Cincinnati: 3.7
vs
Washington: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+98.0% more
Washington: 1.5
vs
Cincinnati: 0.0
Home Runs (L5)
+76.9% more
Washington: 2.5
vs
Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+44.2% more
Washington: 20.6
vs
Cincinnati: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.0
8
CIN Score
5.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.6
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 2.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.0
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 20.6
14.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.0
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
WSH
CIN
WSH
ML
55%
88-71
57%
92-69
49%
79-81
54%
87-74
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-68
50%
80-80
57%
91-70
TTL
53%
81-73-5
50%
77-78-6
54%
83-72-5
42%
65-90-6
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