ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
20-20 | Road
4
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
19-22 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Latz
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 5.29 | -- | 3.0 | 5 |
| Jacob Latz | None-None | 0.83 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.29
ERA
Ldr 0.83
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
RANGERS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
TEX By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TEX By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Texas
4
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Texas
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
TEX @ ARI
7 - 6
Sep 12, 2026
TEX @ ARI
6 - 2
Sep 11, 2026
TEX @ ARI
1 - 9
May 13, 2026
ARI @ TEX
5 - 6
May 12, 2026
ARI @ TEX
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720
▲
OPS
.713
166
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.0% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Texas: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+0.7%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Texas: 71.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Arizona: 40.2%
vs
Texas: 39.6%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.4%
Arizona: 24.6%
vs
Texas: 24.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.0
4
TEX Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 5.6
11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 6.9
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
8.6 / 9.0
19.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.4
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ARI
TEX
ARI
ML
53%
86-76
54%
87-74
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
ATS
57%
92-70
57%
91-70
61%
98-63
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
78-70-14
52%
80-73-8
55%
81-66-14
49%
73-77-9
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