Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Reds WSH @ CIN

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

19-22  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, May 12 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

22-19  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Miles Mikolas
STARTING PITCHER

Miles Mikolas

#36 | SP
@
Pierce Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Pierce Johnson

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Miles Mikolas None-None 7.00 -- 3.1 2
Pierce Johnson None-None 3.71 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
7.00 ERA Ldr 3.71
-- WHIP --
3.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
REDS
0%
NATIONALS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
WASHINGTON
6
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 CIN @ WSH 1 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 CIN @ WSH 2 - 8
Aug 7, 2026 CIN @ WSH 3 - 5
May 14, 2026 WSH @ CIN 1 - 15
May 13, 2026 WSH @ CIN 8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.744 ▲
OPS
.699
210
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +11.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.9 vs Washington: 0.8
Errors (L5) +96.0% more
Washington: 1.3 vs Cincinnati: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +18.9% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Total Bases (L5) +18.5% more
Washington: 14.5 vs Cincinnati: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 5.0 10
CIN Score 6.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.9 10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.8 0.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 7.0 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 14.5 11.0 / 33.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.9 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
WSH
CIN
WSH
ML
55% 88-71
57% 92-69
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-68
50% 80-80
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 81-73-5
50% 77-78-6
54% 83-72-5
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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