Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Brewers SD @ MIL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

24-16  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, May 12 • 7:40 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

22-16  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
@
Abner Uribe
STARTING PITCHER

Abner Uribe

#45 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yuki Matsui None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 3
Abner Uribe None-None 3.52 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.52
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
📊
BREWERS
0%
PADRES --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

40.1%

Brewers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

SD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
SAN DIEGO
6
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 MIL @ SD 3 - 1
Oct 6, 2026 MIL @ SD 3 - 4
Oct 4, 2026 SD @ MIL 3 - 4
Oct 3, 2026 SD @ MIL 2 - 3
Aug 12, 2026 MIL @ SD 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Milwaukee MIL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
5.14
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.341
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.925 ▲
OPS
.743
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +3750.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Walks (L5) +119.1% more
Milwaukee: 4.5 vs San Diego: 2.0
Hits (L5) +55.4% more
Milwaukee: 7.0 vs San Diego: 4.5
Strikeouts (L5) +27.7% more
Milwaukee: 11.5 vs San Diego: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 5.0 4
MIL Score 6.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 4.5 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.5 / 9.0 13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.1 / 8.6 17.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.5 / 2.0 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
SD
MIL
SD
ML
62% 101-61
51% 85-83
52% 84-78
51% 85-82
ATS
58% 94-68
54% 91-77
48% 78-84
55% 92-75
TTL
40% 62-92-8
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-77-8
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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