Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Guardians LAA @ CLE

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

16-25  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, May 11 • 6:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

21-21  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Colin Holderman
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Holderman

#35 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Fermin None-None 5.40 -- 0.2 --
Colin Holderman None-None 1.84 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.40 ERA Ldr 1.84
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
100%
📊
GUARDIANS
0%
ANGELS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

40.1%

Guardians Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
LOS ANGELES
7
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 CLE @ LAA 4 - 3
Aug 25, 2026 CLE @ LAA 8 - 6
Aug 24, 2026 CLE @ LAA 4 - 2
May 13, 2026 LAA @ CLE 2 - 4
May 12, 2026 LAA @ CLE 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .380
.679
OPS
▲ .696
154
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +37.8% more
Cleveland: 10.4 vs Los Angeles: 7.5
Home Runs (Season) +5.2% more
Cleveland: 162.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season) +3.7% more
Cleveland: 4.2 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
OPS (Season) +1.7%
Cleveland: 69.6% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 6.0 2
CLE Score 7.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 7.6 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 7.5 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 9.8 / 13.9 10.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.1 3.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
LAA
CLE
LAA
ML
54% 87-74
59% 96-66
49% 80-82
55% 89-73
ATS
58% 93-68
60% 97-65
59% 95-67
51% 82-80
TTL
55% 88-71-2
53% 83-74-5
43% 69-90-2
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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