TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
26-13 | Road
8
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
18-22 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 2.16 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 2.91 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.16 Ldr
ERA
2.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
BLUE JAYS
0%
RAYS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
TOR @ TB
5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
TOR @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026
TOR @ TB
10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026
TB @ TOR
1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
TB @ TOR
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.728
▲
OPS
.692
169
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+32.0% more
Toronto: 0.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+21.5% more
Toronto: 12.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.3
Hits (L5)
+10.2% more
Toronto: 8.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.9
Errors (L5)
+26.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
Toronto: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.0
8
TOR Score
6.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 7.9
6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 7.2
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 10.3
12.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.0 / 1.9
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TB
TOR
TB
ML
46%
74-87
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
97-66
49%
79-81
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
80-76-5
47%
73-81-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-10
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