TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
25-13 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
17-22 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jovani Moran
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 2.30 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jovani Moran | None-None | 2.91 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.30 Ldr
ERA
2.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
RED SOX
0%
RAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TB By 1-2 runs
10.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
5.4%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
1
TAMPA BAY
Boston
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Boston
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
BOS @ TB
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026
TB @ BOS
1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
TB @ BOS
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.728
▲
OPS
.409
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+78.0% more
Boston: 1.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.4% more
Boston: 8.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.8
Walks (L5)
+22.0% more
Boston: 2.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.4
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
1.0
4
BOS Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 7.9
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.8
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 10.0
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.4
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TB
BOS
TB
ML
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
47%
76-87
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-67
60%
97-66
48%
79-84
55%
90-73
TTL
46%
72-83-5
47%
73-81-9
47%
74-83-6
51%
78-75-10
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