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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

16-24  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, May 10 • 1:35 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

18-22  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Zach Agnos
STARTING PITCHER

Zach Agnos

#36 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zach Agnos None-None 5.84 -- 2.0 1
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.86 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
5.84 ERA Ldr 1.86
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
PHILLIES
0%
ROCKIES --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

40.1%

Phillies Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
COLORADO
5
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
6
COLORADO
7
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Phillies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 COL @ PHI 0 - 6
May 9, 2026 COL @ PHI 3 - 9
May 8, 2026 COL @ PHI 9 - 7
Apr 5, 2026 PHI @ COL 1 - 4
Apr 4, 2026 PHI @ COL 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.739 ▲
OPS
.724
180 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +51.5% more
Philadelphia: 2.0 vs Colorado: 1.3
Strikeouts (L5) +46.1% more
Philadelphia: 11.0 vs Colorado: 7.6
Total Bases (L5) +27.9% more
Philadelphia: 18.6 vs Colorado: 14.5
Hits (L5) +22.2% more
Philadelphia: 10.7 vs Colorado: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 4.0 0
PHI Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.7 / 8.7 10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.3 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.0 / 7.6 10.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 18.6 / 14.5 20.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
COL
PHI
COL
ML
59% 97-67
60% 97-64
49% 80-84
55% 88-73
ATS
65% 107-57
60% 97-64
51% 83-81
52% 83-78
TTL
57% 88-67-9
60% 93-62-6
51% 78-76-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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