COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
16-23 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
17-22 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Gordon
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Gordon | None-None | 6.35 | -- | 3.0 | 3 |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.35
ERA
Ldr 1.80
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
PHILLIES
0%
ROCKIES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
COL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Colorado
9
COLORADO
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rockies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
COL @ PHI
0 - 6
May 9, 2026
COL @ PHI
3 - 9
May 8, 2026
COL @ PHI
9 - 7
Apr 5, 2026
PHI @ COL
1 - 4
Apr 4, 2026
PHI @ COL
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.739
▲
OPS
.724
180
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+41.2% more
Philadelphia: 11.0
vs
Colorado: 7.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.1%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Colorado: 41.7%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.3% more
Colorado: 180.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+32.2% more
Colorado: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
5.0
3
PHI Score
6.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 10.1
14.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.5
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 7.8
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 16.8
25.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.5 / 5.1
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
COL
PHI
COL
ML
59%
97-67
60%
97-64
49%
80-84
55%
88-73
ATS
65%
107-57
60%
97-64
51%
83-81
52%
83-78
TTL
57%
88-67-9
60%
93-62-6
51%
78-76-9
50%
77-78-6
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