HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
16-23 | Road
1
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
20-19 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Pierce Johnson
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 9.24 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Pierce Johnson | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
9.24
ERA
Ldr 3.38
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
100%
REDS
0%
ASTROS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
HOU @ CIN
0 - 5
May 9, 2026
HOU @ CIN
1 - 3
May 8, 2026
HOU @ CIN
10 - 0
May 11, 2025
CIN @ HOU
0 - 6
May 10, 2025
CIN @ HOU
13 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.229
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.305
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.582
OPS
▲
.699
4
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5225.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+37.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Houston: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+36.3% more
Cincinnati: 4.7
vs
Houston: 3.4
OPS (Season)
+11.7%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.0
1
CIN Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.7
5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.6 / 8.5
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 16.9
5.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.7 / 3.4
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
HOU
CIN
HOU
ML
55%
88-71
50%
81-82
49%
79-81
47%
77-87
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-72
50%
80-80
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
81-73-5
45%
70-84-9
54%
83-72-5
45%
69-86-9
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