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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

27-12  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, May 9 • 7:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

17-21  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Ethan Roberts
STARTING PITCHER

Ethan Roberts

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cole Winn
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Winn

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ethan Roberts None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 --
Cole Winn None-None 4.80 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 4.80
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
📊
RANGERS
100%
CUBS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

40.1%

Rangers Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

TEX By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CHICAGO
3
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
4
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 CHC @ TEX 0 - 3
May 9, 2026 CHC @ TEX 0 - 6
May 8, 2026 CHC @ TEX 7 - 1
Apr 9, 2025 TEX @ CHC 6 - 2
Apr 8, 2025 TEX @ CHC 6 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Texas TEX
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.374
OPS
▲ .713
0
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +50.0% more
Chicago: 1.2 vs Texas: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +43.1% more
Chicago: 14.4 vs Texas: 8.2
Hits (L5) +33.1% more
Chicago: 8.4 vs Texas: 5.6
Walks (L5) +13.1% more
Chicago: 4.8 vs Texas: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.0 0
TEX Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.6 / 8.4 9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 8.0 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 8.2 / 14.4 16.0 / 6.0
Walks 4.2 / 4.8 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CHC
TEX
CHC
ML
53% 86-76
58% 93-68
57% 91-70
51% 82-79
ATS
57% 92-70
61% 97-63-1
61% 98-63
47% 75-85-1
TTL
53% 78-70-14
52% 81-74-6
55% 81-66-14
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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