Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Brewers NYY @ MIL

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

26-13  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, May 9 • 7:10 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

20-16  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Aaron Ashby
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Ashby

#26 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Hill None-None 1.10 -- 0.1 --
Aaron Ashby None-None 2.16 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
1.10 Ldr ERA 2.16
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
📊
BREWERS
0%
YANKEES --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Milwaukee)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

30.9%

Brewers Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

NYY By 1-2 runs

13.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

7.8%

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
7
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 NYY @ MIL 3 - 4
May 9, 2026 NYY @ MIL 3 - 4
May 8, 2026 NYY @ MIL 0 - 6
Mar 30, 2025 MIL @ NYY 3 - 12
Mar 29, 2025 MIL @ NYY 9 - 20
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Milwaukee MIL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
5.14
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.341
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
1.041 ▲
OPS
.743
2
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +7600.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0 vs New York: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +39.6% more
Milwaukee: 10.9 vs New York: 7.8
Errors (L5) +37.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.5 vs New York: 0.1
Hits (L5) +19.0% more
Milwaukee: 9.0 vs New York: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.0 3
MIL Score 7.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.0 / 7.6 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 7.8 15.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 12.7 9.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.4 7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
NYY
MIL
NYY
ML
62% 101-61
47% 76-85
52% 84-78
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 94-68
59% 95-66
48% 78-84
53% 86-76
TTL
40% 62-92-8
53% 81-73-7
50% 77-77-8
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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