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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

26-12  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, May 8 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

17-20  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Ethan Roberts
STARTING PITCHER

Ethan Roberts

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jakob Junis
STARTING PITCHER

Jakob Junis

#16 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ethan Roberts None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
Jakob Junis None-None 1.65 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 1.65
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
100%
📊
RANGERS
0%
CUBS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Texas)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

22.7%

Rangers Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

CHC By 1-2 runs

10.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

5.4%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CHICAGO
6
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 CHC @ TEX 0 - 3
May 9, 2026 CHC @ TEX 0 - 6
May 8, 2026 CHC @ TEX 7 - 1
Apr 9, 2025 TEX @ CHC 6 - 2
Apr 8, 2025 TEX @ CHC 6 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Texas TEX
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.374
OPS
▲ .713
0
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +18300.0% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +365.0% more
Texas: 4.2 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +33.9%
Texas: 71.3% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +25.1%
Texas: 39.6% vs Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.0 7
TEX Score 6.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 8.1 2.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 10.0 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 14.0 2.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.3 / 4.7 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CHC
TEX
CHC
ML
53% 86-76
58% 93-68
57% 91-70
51% 82-79
ATS
57% 92-70
61% 97-63-1
61% 98-63
47% 75-85-1
TTL
53% 78-70-14
52% 81-74-6
55% 81-66-14
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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