Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Brewers NYY @ MIL

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

26-12  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, May 8 • 7:40 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

19-16  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Max Fried
STARTING PITCHER

Max Fried

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Shane Drohan

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Max Fried None-None 2.91 -- 6.0 5
Shane Drohan None-None 3.38 -- 3.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.91 Ldr ERA 3.38
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
0%
📊
BREWERS
100%
YANKEES --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

69.1%

Brewers Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

MIL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
3
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Brewers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 NYY @ MIL 3 - 4
May 9, 2026 NYY @ MIL 3 - 4
May 8, 2026 NYY @ MIL 0 - 6
Mar 30, 2025 MIL @ NYY 3 - 12
Mar 29, 2025 MIL @ NYY 9 - 20
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Milwaukee MIL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
5.14
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.341
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
1.041 ▲
OPS
.743
2
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +46.8% more
New York: 1.2 vs Milwaukee: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +42.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Milwaukee: 5.1
Walks (L5) +37.4% more
New York: 5.2 vs Milwaukee: 3.2
OPS (Season) +29.8%
New York: 1.0% vs Milwaukee: 74.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.0 0
MIL Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 9.9 8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 8.2 14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 17.5 10.0 / 3.0
Walks 3.2 / 5.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
NYY
MIL
NYY
ML
62% 101-61
47% 76-85
52% 84-78
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 94-68
59% 95-66
48% 78-84
53% 86-76
TTL
40% 62-92-8
53% 81-73-7
50% 77-77-8
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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